Definitions
Odds and probabilities are two ways to express the same thing.
Probability tells you how many times an event will happen. For example, you will I dealt a pocket pair
once every 17 hands or 5.88% of the time. Odds tell you how many times an event
will not happen. For example, the odds are 16 to 1 against being dealt a pocket pair.
Pot odds are the relationship between the current pot to the current bet.
For example, if the pot is $100 and you must bet $10, the pot odds are 10 to
implied pot odds is the relationship between the current pot and the bets you expect
to win, to the current bet.
Let's look at an example of implied pot odds. You are playing in a $1-$2
same and your lone opponent bets out $2 on the turn. There is $10 in the pot, so
your pot odds are 5 to 1; however, if you improve your hand on the river, you
expect to earn at least one more bet from your opponent. You are risking $2 on the
turn to win a total of $12, the $10 in the current pot plus your opponent's $2 bet on the
river; therefore, your implied odds are 6 to 1. If you expect that your opponent will bet
out on the river and call a raise should you improve, you would earn two more
bets, so your implied odds would be 7 to 1.
Advanced Concept: When calculating pot odds and implied pot odds,
always he aware of the possibility of a raise behind you.
If your bet doesn't close the betting, you may not be getting the pot odds
you expect. For example, an opponent bets $1 and there is $9 in the pot.
Your pot odds are 9 to 1; however, if a player behind you raises, you now must pay an
additional $1.
A raise lowers your pot odds to only 6 to 1 since you will have to pay a
total of $2 to win $12 (assuming the original bettor calls the raise). Note that the total
pot would be $14, but this includes your $2 bet, so you don't include this in the
calculation. There are many situations in Hold'em that require folding when there is
a possibility that a raise will decrease the pot odds you are receiving.
An out is an important concept when discussing probability and odds.
An out is a card that improves your hand. For example, when you hold two hearts
and there are two hearts on the board, you need one more heart for a flush. There are
nine remaining hearts or "outs" to improve your hand. If you have A ♥ T
♥
and you think another ace would also win the hand, you now have 12 outs: the nine
hearts and the three remaining aces.
An out is counterfeited when a card that improves your hand gives an
opponent an even better hand. One of the most common mistakes made by many
players is assuming that they will win when a particular card improves their hand;
however, it does you no good to draw to a hand that will only lose. For example,
you could be hoping for a flush card only to lose to a higher flush or maybe even a full
house. You could hit an overcard, a card higher than any card on the board, only to
lose to two pair, three of a kind, a straight, or a flush.
When applying odds, you should discount an out whenever there is a
chance that you could improve but still lose the hand. Once you know the number of
discounted outs that can win the hand, you can calculate the odds against
improving to the winning hand to determine your best strategy. How much you discount
an out is dependent on how many players you are against and you read on your
opponents' possible holdings given the betting sequences in the hand.
For example, you have three outs to an overcard ace and feel that you
might win about 2/3 of the time against a lone opponent if you hit the ace;
therefore, you would discount your three outs to two outs. However, against two
opponents you might feel you will only win about 1/3 of the time, so you discount your
three outs to one out. If you are against three or more opponents, you might feel that
even with another ace, there is a high chance that you will not be able to win the
pot. In this case, you should disregard the outs to the ace since you are drawing
dead.
Drawing dead is when you cannot improve to the winning hand. This
occurs when your opponents counterfeit all of your outs or already have a hand better
than the one you are drawing to. For example, you might be drawing dead to
two overcards if an opponent already has three of a kind, two pair, or your outs would
give your opponent an even better hand.
We will go through several examples to look at how you should determine the
number of discounted outs you have in a hand based on the probability that your
outs are counterfeited or that you are drawing dead. First let's look a
how to calculate odds.
NEXT...Calculating Odds
