Determining the Number of Discounted Outs
When calculating odds, you need to use the number of discounted outs that will
help you win the hand. As discussed before, it does you no good to improve your
hand only to lose to a better hand. Let's look at some examples to see better how
you determine the number of discounted outs.
You have K ♦ Q ♣ and the board is J ♦
T ♣ 5 ♥ 2. You have eight strong outs to the nut
straight with any ace or 9 and six weak outs to the king or queen. The six outs to
the king or queen are weak since your opponent could ahead; have two pair or a
set or is counterfeiting your outs.
In this example, a king would give you a pair but might also give an opponent a
straight, two pair, or a pair with a better kicker. Note all the hands you would lose to
if a king comes: KK, JJ, TT, 55, 22, AK, AQ. KJ, KT, K5, K2, Q9, JT, J5, J2, T5, and
T2. If a queen comes, you would lose to QQ, JJ, TT, 55, 22, AK, AQ, K9, QJ, QT,
Q5, Q2, JT, J5, J2, T5, T2, and 98.
How much you should discount your weak outs often depends on how many
opponents you are against. In the example above, you have six weak outs. Against
a lone opponent, if you feel that 50% of the time a king or queen will help you win,
you should discount the six weak outs to three. In this case, you would play the
hand as if you had an equivalent of 11 outs to win the hand, the three discounted
outs and the eight strong outs to the nut straight. If you are against two opponents,
you might estimate that a king or queen would win only once every six times;
therefore, you would play as if you had nine outs, eight nut outs to the straight plus
the one discounted out. Against three opponents, you should probably disregard
the weak outs since it is unlikely a king or queen will win. In this case, you would
play only if you draw to your eight nut outs is justified. Let's look at some more
examples.
You have A ♣ T ♥ and the flop is K ♦
T ♣ 5 ♠ . You have two strong to the ten, unless
an opponent holds KT or T5. Another ace would give you two pair, but your out is
counterfeited if an opponent holds AA, AK, or QJ, so you should discount the out to
the ace. All your outs should be discounted slightly for the possibility that an
opponent holds a set. Depending on the number of opponents and the betting
sequences, you should play this hand as if you had between two and four outs.
You have A ♣ 9 ♥ and the flop is J ♦
9 ♦ 4 ♣ with several callers on the flop. You
probably are against a flush draw, so the A ♦ is counterfeited. You could also lose to
another ace if someone has AA or AJ. Always account for the possibility of a set.
Advanced Concept: Whenever the flop is two-suited, you should discount a suited out against a
lone opponent and probably disregard the out against several opponents for the risk that one of
them holds a flush draw.
A common mistake made by many players is drawing to weak hands when flush
draws are likely. As a general rule, most draws are not profitable with a two-suited
flop arid several callers in the hand. The only exception to this is when the pot is
exceptionally large. This is a key concept since you will be playing with a two- or
three-suited flop about 60% of the time! This concept is discussed further in the flop
chapters. For now, simply understand that you need to discount or disregard your
outs based on the likelihood that they are counterfeited.
Another consideration when determining your outs on the flop is the possibility that
you could improve on the turn only to see an opponent improve to an even better
hand on the river.
Advanced Concept: When drawing on the flop, you should discount your outs a little, and maybe a
lot, for the probability that your opponents could draw to an even better hand on the river.
There are very few hands that are a lock to win on the turn. Nut flushes can lose to
a full house if the board pairs on the river. The nut straight can lose to a flush on the
river. Your two pair could lose to an opponent hitting a set. When the flop is two-
suited, these types of situations occur often since there are a lot of river cards that
could hurt your hand.
Most players complain about their bad luck when they improve on the turn to lose
on the river. Good players recognize that these types of situations occur a lot and
include this possibility in their decision-making process. Borderline draws on the
flop should often be folded for the possibility that you will lose on the river.
Now that we know how to determine
the number of discounted outs and calculate
the odds against improving to the best hand, we can look at how to apply odds at
the poker table.
NEXT...Application of Odds
